Tony Vargas has outspent the incumbent and is running on cutting middle-class taxes.īacon’s campaign as mostly been positive, though Republicans have labeled Vargas a liberal and sought to tie him to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.Ĭounty to watch: Douglas. Bacon won the GOP primary without breaking a sweat, though he now faces his toughest test in years. He also supported the 2021 infrastructure law - prompting Trump to later ask his followers, “Anyone want to run for Congress against Don Bacon in Nebraska?”īut Trump didn’t find any takers. He voted against both impeachments, but he also crossed the aisle to back a commission to investigate the Jan. Though Trump won the seat in 2016, Biden comfortably captured its electoral vote two years ago.įor his part, Bacon has struggled to navigate Trump’s role as party leader. Don Bacon has survived the past few elections even as his Omaha-based district has drifted left. The topline: What matters more - incumbency, or our increasingly nationalized politics? That was down from Bustos’ 65 percent there in 2018 - and Sorensen can’t afford much more slippage than that.Ĭook Political Report Partisan Voter Index: EvenĮstimated 2020 presidential result: Biden +6.4 In 2020, Bustos beat King 57 percent to 43 percent in Rock Island, which includes Moline. The district takes in swaths of rural Illinois, in addition to the Quad Cities on the east banks of the Mississippi River - places where Republicans have been making gains recently.Ĭounty to watch: Rock Island. The race between former TV meteorologist Eric Sorensen and 2020 GOP candidate Esther Joy King is tight, and both parties are fully engaged in the ad battle to win it. Cheri Bustos’ seat in redistricting, transforming it from one then-President Donald Trump won by 2 points to one President Joe Biden would’ve carried by 8 points.īut that still might not be enough for Democrats to hold it. State legislative Democrats sought to shore up retiring Rep. The topline: An open seat in blue territory in northwest Illinois. Esther Joy King (R)Ĭook Political Report Partisan Voter Index: D+2Įstimated 2020 presidential result: Biden +7.8 Illinois’ 17th DistrictĮric Sorensen (D) vs. Here are the races to watch on Tuesday night - and beyond - to get the best sense of what kind of election we’re having. The other three involve endangered incumbents: a Trump-district Democrat, a Biden-district Republican, and a two-term member who has been forced, by redistricting, to seek reelection in a seat where most of her constituents don’t live.Īnd all five are currently rated as “Toss Ups” in POLITICO’s Election Forecast. Two are open seats, the purest tests of the political environment. Here are five races that frequently come up as the contests the pros will be watching.
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